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Applied Physics and Mathematics Annotation << Back
THE FORECAST OF SECULAR CHANGES AA OF THE GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY INDEX FOR A HUNDRED YEARS |
A.I. LAPTUKHOV, V.A. LAPTUKHOV
The method of the forecast of changes of non-periodic oscillatory physical processes on the basis of search of complex nonlinear
analytical dependence of the future from the present and the past is developed. Using this method and data of supervision aa
index of geomagnetic activity for 1868–2016 is shown, that the minimal value average for 21 years of the modifi ed numbers LA21 of
geomagnetic activity will be in 2028 LA21(2028)=3,70±0,05, coinciding with the years of the minimum in 1905 LA21(1905)=3,70=min.
The maximal meaning of numbers LA21 index will be 2085±5 years and will amount to LA21(2085)=5,73±0,10, which is close to the
observed maximum value LA21(1984)=5,87. The forecasts of secular changes in the geomagnetic activity of aa and LA indexes will be
coordinated among themselves and to the forecast of activity of the Sun on Wolf’s numbers, that specifi es their validity.
Keywords: long-term forecast, dependence of the future from the present and the past, geomagnetic activity, nonlinear oscillatory
process.
Contacts: E-mail: a.laptukhov@mail.ru, E-mail: laptuhov@mail.ru
Pp. 86-90. |
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