Applied Physics and Mathematics Annotation << Back ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE V.B. TERENTEV In the process of test flights of the aircraft, which can go with high intensity, it is necessary to have an operational methodology and the corresponding program for calculating probability indicators. The methodology should allow an approximate assessment of the values of the main parameters that affect the probability of fulfilling a flight goal. Determining the probability of near guidance of an aircraft to an air object is an important and often encountered task in calculating the probability of interception of such an object. The paper presents a calculation of the probability of near guidance provided long-range guidance took place and without calculating the defeat of the object by an aviation weapon. According to the results of the presented simplified calculation method, it is possible to optimize, as a first approximation, the studied parameters of the process of pointing the aircraft to an air object. This method is necessary for the operational preparation of flight missions in the process of intensive test flights, as well as the analysis of their results. The computational methods used in the work for estimating probabilistic indicators make it possible to reduce the number of test flights and reduce the cost of testing. The main calculations were performed using the Mathcad software environment. Keywords: aircraft; probability of guidance; tests; air object; detection range. DOI: 10.25791/pfim.02.2021.1195 Pp. 27-33.